Global oil price expectations shifted materially this week after the United States and Iran reached an interim agreement aimed at ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Bank of America lowered its 2026 Brent crude forecast from $93 to $82 per barrel, with the bank's note — reported by Reuters — suggesting prices could trade in a $70–$80 range for much of the second half of the year. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citi have also revised their forecasts downward.
The interim agreement is structured around a 14-point memorandum. Under its terms, Iran will allow vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz without fees during a 60-day negotiation window, and the deal targets restoring full shipping capacity through the corridor within 30 days. Sanctions on Iranian oil are also set to ease, adding to expectations of higher global supply. Despite the lower price outlook, Bank of America still forecasts a global oil deficit of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026 — a notable shift from its pre-conflict projection of a 2 million-barrel-per-day surplus. Looking to 2027, the bank projects Brent averaging $70 per barrel even as supply is expected to exceed demand.
What this means for our clients
For founders relocating to or operating within the UAE, softer oil prices typically feed through to government revenue assumptions, public spending trajectories, and — over time — the broader business climate in the Gulf. The UAE has made significant strides in diversifying its economy, and the direct budget impact of a move from $93 to $82 Brent will vary depending on fiscal break-even assumptions that are not detailed in this source. That said, businesses in energy-adjacent sectors — logistics, maritime services, petrochemicals — should factor a potentially lower oil price environment into their 2026–2027 planning.
Company structuring, free zone selection, and corporate tax positioning should always be stress-tested against different macro scenarios. If you are in the process of establishing a UAE entity or reviewing your existing structure in light of shifting regional conditions, we encourage you to read the full Economy Middle East report at the source link above or to book a consultation with our team at Sirius Consulting.