Citi has revised its Brent crude forecasts downward, cutting its Q3 and Q4 2026 averages to $75 and $70 per barrel respectively, and lowering its 2027 target to $65 per barrel from a prior $80. The bank's stated rationale is the growing likelihood that Strait of Hormuz shipping flows will normalise following the signing of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Citi assigns a 60 percent probability to this base case and notes that, were the market fully pricing sustained Hormuz access over the medium term, crude would likely trade $10–15 per barrel lower than current levels.
On the metals side, Citi raised its 0–3 month gold forecast to $4,500 per ounce from $4,000, and its silver target to $70 per ounce from $60. The bank kept its 6–12 month gold view at $5,000 per ounce, while flagging significant volatility ahead driven by interest rate expectations, currency movements, and ongoing geopolitical developments. Separately, Citi recommended buying the dip in aluminium despite a post-MoU selloff, citing confidence in longer-term industrial demand.
What this means for our clients
For founders and investors relocating to the UAE, these shifts carry practical relevance. The UAE economy has deep ties to hydrocarbon revenues, and a sustained move toward lower oil prices would, in most cases, influence government spending trajectories and the broader business environment over time. Precious metals strength, by contrast, tends to support UAE-based trading, commodities, and wealth management activity — sectors where several of our clients operate.
Structural decisions around company formation, free zone selection, and corporate treasury should account for commodity cycle positioning, particularly for businesses with exposure to energy or metals markets. We are not in a position to advise on investment or trading positions, but we can help clients understand how a changing commodity backdrop may affect their UAE corporate structure and banking requirements. Read the full Citi analysis as reported by Economy Middle East at the source link above, or speak with our team to discuss how current market conditions intersect with your UAE setup.