Riyad Capital's Second Quarter 2026 Saudi Economic Chartbook projects Saudi Arabia's real GDP will accelerate to 6.8 percent in 2027, up sharply from an expected 0.9 percent in 2026. The report, prepared by Chief Investment Officer Hans Peter Huber, attributes the rebound to two forces: a recovery in oil production — forecast to rise to 10.4 million barrels per day in 2027 from 9.1 million in 2026 — and continued expansion across non-oil sectors. The baseline scenario assumes a gradual reopening of Strait of Hormuz oil routes from September 2026 and a return of Saudi crude output to earlier levels by the same month.
Non-oil activities are forecast to grow 3.0 percent in 2026 and accelerate to 4.7 percent in 2027, with tourism, logistics, manufacturing, technology and services all cited as contributing sectors. Inflation is projected to remain contained at around 2.0–2.1 percent, and the three-month SAIBOR is forecast to ease from 4.75 percent to 4.25 percent over the same period — conditions that typically support business investment and consumer spending. Saudi Arabia's trade surplus is expected to remain substantial, projected at SAR 455 billion in 2026 and SAR 410 billion in 2027.
What this means for our clients
For founders operating from the UAE, a stronger Saudi growth cycle is a relevant data point rather than a distant headline. The Kingdom is the UAE's largest trading partner in the GCC, and an accelerating Saudi economy — particularly in non-oil sectors — typically increases cross-border commercial activity. Clients in logistics, professional services, technology and financial advisory tend to see increased deal flow from Saudi-facing work when regional growth picks up. A UAE free zone or mainland structure can, in many cases, serve as an efficient base for companies pursuing GCC-wide mandates, though the right setup depends on the specific nature of the activity and the client's tax and residency requirements.
It is worth noting that these are projections from a single investment bank and carry the usual forecast uncertainties, including the assumption of normalised Strait of Hormuz shipping from September 2026. We recommend reading the full Riyad Capital chartbook for the underlying methodology, and we are happy to discuss how a shifting regional economic environment might affect your UAE structuring decisions — book a consultation with the Sirius team or review the source article at Economy Middle East: https://economymiddleeast.com/news/why-saudi-arabias-economy-is-forecast-to-reach-6-8-percent-growth-in-2027/